See how losing and winning streaks are a mathematical certainty — even with a strong edge.
Probability of experiencing at least one losing streak of length K within 100 trades at a 55% win rate.
| Streak Length | Probability | Likelihood |
|---|---|---|
| 3 losses in a row | 100.0% | Almost certain |
| 5 losses in a row | 83.3% | Very likely |
| 7 losses in a row | 29.7% | Possible |
| 10 losses in a row | 3.1% | Unlikely |
Even with a 60% win rate, a 5-trade losing streak is almost guaranteed over 100 trades.
This is why risk management matters more than win rate.
Never increase risk after a losing streak — the math says streaks are normal.